After hitting a record high of ₹1,611.80 just yesterday, Reliance Industries‘ stock took a sharp U-turn, falling nearly 5% today to hit an intraday low of ₹1,496.30 per share amid the military escalation between the USA and Venezuela.

Reliance Industries Ltd.RELIANCE₹1,506.40 -4.54%

USA’s Attack on Venezuela: Crude Shock

On 3 January 2026, the United States attacked Venezuela, capturing Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. Following this, President Donald Trump announced plans for the USA to “rebuild” the Venezuelan oil industry, which holds the world’s largest crude reserves.

For Reliance, this is an operational shift. The company’s Jamnagar refinery is specifically designed to process “heavy and sour” crude, the kind that Venezuela produces in abundance. While the prospect of gaining access to these reserves is a potential goldmine, the immediate chaos in the region has left investors worried about supply stability.

Trump Threatens With Fresh Tariffs on India

In another statement, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on India if it doesn’t resolve the ‘Russian oil issue’. For Reliance, which operates the world’s largest refining complex at Jamnagar, any disruption in the flow of discounted Russian crude—or shifts in global refining margins (GRMs)—directly hits the bottom line.

Reliance promptly issued a statement denying a media report that claimed three Russian oil tankers were currently headed to Jamnagar. The company clarified it had not received Russian oil in three weeks and has no scheduled arrivals for the rest of January.

While Reliance’s export focused SEZ has halted refining of Russian oil, the domestic refinery (DTA) still processes it. RIL’s denial of import of Russian oil was specific to the SEZ/Export schedule to satisfy the EU’s rule.

EU’s 60-Day Rule

Under its impending “60-day rule” (effective Jan 2026), which is part of its 18th Sanctions Package, Europe will reject refined fuels from facilities that have processed Russian crude in the preceding two months. Reliance’s export-oriented SEZ refinery had already halted Russian intake as far back as November 20, 2025, to ensure compliance.

This protects the company’s key European market access and avoids US secondary sanctions, a significant strategic move impacting future Russian oil intake and trade. This pivot ensures that products sold to the EU come from non-Russian crude, maintaining compliance while RIL continues processing some Russian oil for India’s domestic market.

What If Reliance Buys Venezuelan Oil?

In the past, Reliance Industries has purchased about 20% of its daily crude oil requirement from the PDVSA (a state-owned oil and gas company of Venezuela). Market experts suggest that this oil could be available at a $5-$8/bbl discount to Brent crude, which could help the company’s Gross Refining Margins.

The Bottom Line

Reliance is currently caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war. The market is currently weighing the risk of losing discounted Russian oil and facing USA’s tariffs against the long-term potential of a USA-led Venezuelan oil revival. For now, the uncertainty might be outweighing the optimism.